Get the full thesis before the market opens.
Every weekday morning. Reverse-DCF. Owner earnings. Insider Form 4 + 13F crosscheck. Bull and bear case. Position sizing. Exit tripwires. No fluff.
Live track record: 2 picks · 0% win rate vs SPY · avg α -0.51%
Every pick logged publicly. See the scorecard →
Free
A taste of every day's idea.
$0/forever
- ✓ Daily email — ticker + verdict
- ✓ First-paragraph thesis teaser
- ✓ Public scorecard access
- — No prices or targets
- — No full analysis
- — No bear case
Premium
The full report. Every morning.
$12/month
or $108/year — save $36
- ✓ Full daily report — reverse-DCF, ROIC, owner earnings
- ✓ Recommendation price, target, stop loss
- ✓ Bull / base / bear case + expected return
- ✓ Position sizing (Kelly) + exit tripwires
- ✓ Insider Form 4 + Dataroma 13F crosscheck
- ✓ Adversarial bear-case report
- ✓ Cancel anytime
What you get every weekday morning
- Screen: 20+ candidates from Morningstar, EV/EBIT, FCF screens, Dataroma superinvestor 13F new buys.
- Brief: hard-data pull per finalist — reverse DCF, owner earnings, 5-yr ROIC, insider open-market signal, top 10 institutional holders, quarterly trend.
- Report: Buffett/Klarman/Druckenmiller frameworks. Falsifiable. Numbers > adjectives. Banned phrases: "strong portfolio", "robust pipeline", "well-positioned".
- Bear case: separate adversarial pass to find what could kill the thesis.
- Sizing: Kelly criterion or risk parity. Position-sized to your conviction.
- Tripwires: explicit numeric exit conditions before you enter.
Track record honesty
Every pick is logged the day it's published — wins and losses both. The scorecard compares each pick against SPY at T+5d, T+30d, T+90d, T+180d. Nothing is hidden, retroactively edited, or cherry-picked. If the picks don't beat SPY, you'll see it before you pay.
Why this is different from every other stock newsletter
TYPICAL STOCK NEWSLETTERS
- Track record cherry-picked or hidden
- "Strong portfolio · well-positioned" word salad
- No sizing — vague "consider buying"
- No bear case
- Quietly delete losers
DAILY PICK
- Every pick logged the day it ships — public
- Numbers > adjectives, falsifiable claims only
- Kelly-sized position with explicit % allocation
- Adversarial bear-case attached to every pick
- Wins and losses both stay in the archive forever
FAQ
Is this investment advice?
No. It is independent research and analysis. We are not a registered investment advisor. Every decision to buy or sell is yours. We publish methodology and numbers so you can verify our work — not so you can copy trades blindly.
Where is the track record?
Public — on the homepage. Every pick is logged with date, price, target, and stop the day it's published, then compared to SPY at T+5d, T+30d, T+90d, T+180d. See the live scorecard →
What stocks do you cover?
US-listed equities, predominantly mid-cap and large-cap with screened undervaluation signals (reverse-DCF gap, EV/EBIT, FCF yield, insider open-market buying, superinvestor 13F new positions). No micro-caps, penny stocks, crypto, options, or shorts.
How often do you publish?
Every US market weekday morning — pick + analysis ready before 9:30 AM ET. Skipped on US market holidays.
Can I cancel anytime?
Yes. Premium is a month-to-month subscription handled by Beehiiv (Stripe). Cancel from your subscriber account at any time — no questions, no friction.
What if the picks underperform SPY?
You'll see it on the scorecard before you pay. We've committed publicly: if average alpha is negative at T+90d after 50 picks, the newsletter pauses. The site stays up; you can keep watching until edge returns. Honest pricing requires honest performance.
Do you front-run subscribers?
No. Picks are published at the same time to the site and to subscribers. The analysis pipeline runs autonomously each morning — no human intermediary can act on a pick before publication.
Important
Daily Pick is research and analysis. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and not personalized to your financial situation. You are responsible for verifying every number against primary sources (10-K, 10-Q, Form 4, 13F) and for any trade you choose to make. Past performance does not predict future results.